The blame for this state of affairs along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border lies primarily with successive Federal Governments in Pakistan, which chose to ignore education and economic development in the tribal areas. As a result, the people lead a lifestyle rooted in the nineteenth, rather than the twenty-first century. The tribals have also, for nearly three decades now, been armed with some of the most potent weapons and encouraged to join their Pashtun brethren across the Durand Line to support jihad in Afghanistan. This propensity to using tribals for achieving foreign policy objectives has, in fact, been a regular feature in Pakistani military strategy, ever since tribals were let loose on Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) in 1948. The entire quest of the Pakistani military establishment for ‘strategic depth’ in Afghanistan has been nothing more than an attempt to make Afghanistan a client state ruled by an internationally isolated medieval clique, the Taliban, which is totally dependent on Pakistan for its survival. But Pakistan is, now, paying the price for these policies.

Pakistan’s follies have been matched by American military ineptness, with General Tommy Franks making no effort to block exit routes for the Taliban and al Qaeda leadership, even as the Northern Alliance overran Kabul in 2001. The net result of this ineptitude was that, while the Taliban leadership, including its ‘Amir’ (chief) Mullah Mohammed Omar, took refuge in Balochistan, Taliban military commanders and their al Qaeda, Chechen and Uzbek allies melted into the rugged mountainous terrain of the NWFP. Some second ranking al Qaeda leaders have since been captured. But, the Taliban leadership under Mullah Omar remains intact. In the face of tremendous American pressure, the Pakistan Army moved into the tribal areas in 2004, but soon found that the tribals it had armed for jihad in Afghanistan were more than a handful to deal with. Successive ‘peace deals’ were signed with tribal leaders like Baitullah Mehsud and Faqir Mohammed between 2004 and 2006. These ‘deals’ required the tribals to end all support for ‘foreign militants’, in return for lifting of the blockade imposed by the Army and a pledge by the Government of Pakistan for large-scale economic assistance.

None of the peace agreements of the past has worked, with the tribal militants escalating terrorist attacks and suicide bombings across Pakistan after the siege of the Lal Masjid in Islamabad in July 2007. Around 300 Pashtun women students from the tribal areas are reported to have been killed in the assault on Lal Masjid. The tribals also declared war on the Pakistan army and terrorist strikes were undertaken on military installations, including units of the elite Special Services Group (SSG), once commanded by General Musharraf. The Pakistan Army had earlier got a bloody nose in its operations in the tribal areas. An estimated 1,564 armed forces’ personnel have been killed and 570 captured in operations in the NWFP between March 2004 and May 2008. There are also reports of significant desertions and refusals to fight by members of the armed forces. In the meantime, various pro-Taliban tribal groups within the country united under the banner of the Tehriq-e-Taliban e Pakistan, headed by Baitullah Mehsud, on December 14, 2007, on which date 40 pro-Taliban tribal leaders from all the Tribal Agencies and the Districts of Swat, Banu, Lakki Marwat, Dera Ismail Khan, Kohistan, Buner and the Malakand, met and decided to form a joint resistance movement. The Tehriq vowed to step up operations against NATO forces in Afghanistan and build up strong defences to take on Pakistani forces. A ten-day ultimatum was issued to the Pakistan Government to release the jailed Lal Masjid cleric, Maulana Abdul Aziz Ghazi, who had been incarcerated after he surrendered during the July 2007 assault in Islamabad.

Baitullah Mehsud offered a ceasefire on February 7, 2008, following what were evidently secret negotiations with the Army. An exhausted Army Chief, General Ashfaq Kiyani, seeking space to distance himself from the widely unpopular policies of General Pervez Musharraf, duly reciprocated, and an uneasy and tenuous ceasefire prevails in the tribal areas, disturbed occasionally by strikes by American assets on suspected Taliban and al Qaeda hideouts in the tribal areas. While American ire has been directed against the newly elected Government for pursuing what are believed to be policies of appeasing terrorism on Pakistani soil, the reality is that it is the Pakistan Army that is no longer willing to fight pro-Taliban tribals in the NWFP, even as it enriches its coffers with American aid. At the same time, however, another drama has been enacted in the picturesque tourist District of Swat, where the newly elected Awami National Party (ANP)-led Provincial Government has concluded yet another ‘peace deal’ with the leader of a longstanding fundamentalist and pro-Taliban outfit, the Tehriq-e-Nifaz-e-Shariat-e-Mohammadi (TNSM) led by Maulana Fazlullah, popularly known as ‘Maulana Radio’, because he runs an illegal radio station demanding the implementation of Shariah law. The military had launched operations against ‘Maulana Radio’ in November 2007 after he took over the entire District, enforced rigid Shariah laws and blocked the strategic Karakoram Highway, linking Pakistan and China.

The 15 point ‘Peace Deal’ signed between the ANP Government and TNSM on May 21, 2008, bans private militias. The public display of weapons is forbidden. The TNSM has agreed that it will not interfere in the education of girls, that it will not attack barber shops and music parlours and will not prevent vaccination of children against polio (earlier obstructed as an ‘American plot’ to sterilize Muslim children). The TNSM has pledged to close down training centres for suicide bombers (thereby acknowledging such centres existed earlier) and that it will end manufacture of explosive devices. In return, that Government has accepted that Swat will be governed, not by Pakistani laws, but by Shariah law. Moreover, the impasse over the illegal Radio station has been resolved by Maulana Fazlullah nominally accepting the writ of the Pakistan Government and agreeing to seek Government permission to run the radio station –permission that can hardly be refused. This ‘peace deal’ was signed by a high-level ANP delegation and by representatives of Maulana Fazlullah. Just as the agreement was being signed, two girls’ schools, a picnic centre and a gas pipeline were blown up in Swat.

There is little scope for such agreements to succeed, either in preventing cross-border terrorist activities, or in reasserting the eroding writ of the Pakistan State in its volatile western border areas. The fundamental problem arises from the fact that no Pashtun leader will ever accept that his Afghan Taliban brethren are ‘foreign militants’. The Taliban leadership and cadres will, therefore, continue to receive haven and support in the tribal areas and, indeed, throughout the NWFP. Secondly, there is the problem of the so called ‘Kashmiri Mujahideen’ who entered the NWFP and were settled by the ISI in the Malakand Division and in some of the tribal areas, after the earthquake that struck Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK) in October 2005. Informed sources in the NWFP note that, when the earthquake struck in PoK, an estimated ten thousand jihadis, mostly comprising Pakistani Punjabis from groups like the Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) and the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT), collectively referred to as ‘Kashmir Mujahideen’, who were in camps in PoK, had to be moved into the NWFP, when NATO and western relief teams descended on PoK. These jihadis have made common cause with the Taliban and have been responsible for a number of terrorist attacks and suicide bombings, both within Pakistan (after the Lal Masjid siege) and in Afghanistan. They will not countenance any curbs on crossing into Afghanistan. It remains to be seen if, during negotiations for ‘peace deals’ in the tribal areas, the ISI succeeds in persuading the ‘Kashmir Mujahideen’ to leave the country’s western borders and return to POK and to pursue their original aim of waging jihad in J&K.

When asked whether the ceasefire he announced on February 7, 2008, was a prelude to his ending his jihad in Afghanistan, Baitullah Mehsud replied: "Islam does not recognize frontiers. Jihad in Afghanistan will continue". Any ‘peace deal’ the NWFP Government or the Army concludes with Pashtun militant groups is set to fail, because Pashtuns on both sides of the Durand Line do not recognize the Durand Line as an international border which separates them. And all efforts by the Americans or others to persuade any Government in Afghanistan to recognize the legitimacy of the Durand Line as an international border will inevitably fail.

It remains to be seen for how long the Americans will continue to tolerate cross-border attacks on NATO forces in Afghanistan. A bruised Pakistan Army, in which Pashtuns constitute a significant element, is reluctant to face further disaffection and desertions in its ranks caused by fighting its kinsmen in the NWFP. Moreover, there is, as yet, no evidence to suggest that the Pakistan Army establishment has given up its zeal for ‘strategic depth’ in Afghanistan, or its propensity to use radical Islamist groups to achieve its strategic goals. For all practical purposes, however, the Durand Line no longer exists as a manageable international border. The writ of the Pakistani State in this entire region has been significantly eroded.

Where is Pakistan headed in the coming years, as it faces up to the blowback of past policies? In its Report of 2001, entitled "Global Trends 2015", the US National Intelligence Council noted:

These observations, dating back more than seven years, are certainly prescient, and it will be interesting to observe how present developments along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border play out, against the backdrop of this scenario.

[South Asian Intelligence Review]

Taliban ends all peace agreements with the Government: The Tehrik-e-Taliban (TTP) announced on June 29 that they have ended all peace agreements with the Pakistan Government. A shura (executive council) of the TTP held earlier that day had endorsed Amir (Chief) Baitullah Mehsud’s announcement about suspending all peace agreements and negotiations with the Government in FATA and the NWFP. TTP spokesperson Maulana Omar citing reasons for suspending the peace deals said that despite previous agreements the Government had launched operations against Taliban in Swat, Khyber Agency, Jandola and Darra Adamkhel. Dawn; Daily Times, June 30, 2008.

22 members of a pro-government "peace committee" killed by Taliban: 22 members of a pro-government "peace committee" were killed by the TTP on June 25 at Jandola of Tank in the NWFP. Three days earlier, the TTP had abducted 28 "Peace Committee" members. Tank District Co-ordination Officer Barkatullah Marwat told, "I can confirm that 22 bullet-ridden bodies of those kidnapped by the Taliban three days ago were recovered on June 25 near Jandola." A TTP spokesman claiming responsibility for the killings said, "We have killed 22 and the fate of the remaining six will be decided later." "It was a joint action by the Bhittani and Mehsud tribes against dacoits. The men we killed were involved in thefts and robbery and had unleashed a reign of terror on the people", he added. Daily Times, June 26, 2008.

Four soldiers killed by jihadis along Line of Control: Four Pakistani soldiers were killed and three others injured in a clash with a jihadi group on June 19. Speaking to journalists in Islamabad Pakistan Army spokesperson Major-General Athar Abbas said the troops died in a clash near the town of Hajira, east of the Line of Control (LoC), in the district of Poonch, with "unknown miscreants." He offered no explanation of how the fighting had broken out, but confirmed that the soldiers’ deaths were not caused by Indian military action. Highly-placed Indian military sources stationed in the area, however, indicated that the deaths were most likely the outcome of an accidental clash between Pakistani troops and a jihadi group. A senior Army official said the clash began when a group of jihadis trying to infiltrate into the Indian side were fired upon by Indian soldiers, forcing them to retreat and run into a Pakistan Army patrol. "In the fog of the fighting it is possible the jihadis mistook the Pakistani Army troops for an Indian ambush, or the other way around", he said. The Hindu, June 20, 2008.

"I won’t resign, Parliament has right to impeach me", says President Pervez Musharraf: President Pervez Musharraf has said that he will not step down from his position and would continue to play his constitutional role as the President "to strengthen democracy in the country." Musharraf told at the presidential Camp Office in Rawalpindi that there was, however, a provision for impeaching the President in the Constitution and the Parliament had a right to make use of it. Daily Times, June 19, 2008.

Support to Kashmiri freedom struggle to continue, says Prime Minister: Pakistan Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani, talking to Yasin Malik, Chairman of the Jammu and Kashmir Liberation Front (JKLF), at Parliament House on June 16, said that Pakistan would continue to extend moral, diplomatic and political support for the Kashmiri ‘freedom struggle’, and it wanted a just and peaceful resolution of the problem in accordance with the wishes of the Kashmiri people. Gilani said that sustainable peace in South Asia could not be achieved without the settlement of the Kashmir dispute. Daily Times, June 17, 2008.

Afghan President Karzai threatens to send forces into Pakistan: Afghanistan President Hamid Karzai, on June 15, threatened to send Afghan troops across the border to fight Taliban militants in Pakistan. Accusing Pakistan of sheltering most of the fighters involved in recent incidents in the Garmser District of Helmand Province, he told a News Conference that Afghanistan had the right to self-defence, and because militants cross over from Pakistan "to come and kill Afghans and kill coalition troops, it exactly gives us the right to do the same". Karzai added, "This is a two-way road in this case, and Afghans are good at the two-way road journey. We will complete the journey and we will get them and we will defeat them. We will avenge all that they have done to Afghanistan for the past so many years." Daily Times, June 16, 2008.

11 soldiers and 10 militants killed in US attack in FATA: At least 11 paramilitary soldiers and 10 militants were killed in an air strike by the US-led forces on a Frontier Corps security post in the Sheikh Baba area along the Afghan border in Mohmand tribal region on the night of June 10. 15 persons, including six paramilitary soldiers, were reportedly injured in the attack. Officials of the Mohmand Rifles have said that 40 of their men are missing. A spokesman of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, Maulvi Umar, said that eight Taliban had been killed and nine others wounded in clashes. He also claimed that the Taliban had captured seven soldiers of the Afghan National Army and shot down a NATO helicopter, killing its crew. Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani on June 11 condemned the air strike and said his Government would ensure the sovereignty of the country. Dawn, June 12, 2008.

‘Militants from Pakistan most likely authors of future US attack’, says US military official: Any future terror attack against US interests would most likely be carried out by militants based in Pakistan’s restive tribal belt bordering Afghanistan, US Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Admiral Michael Mullen said on June 10. The top military official told the Press in Washington that tribal groups with ties to al Qaeda in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) represent the worst security threat to the US. "I believe fundamentally that if the US is going to get hit, it is going to come out of the planning of the leadership in FATA," he told reporters, adding, "That is a threat to us that must be dealt with." The new Government in Pakistan, Mullen said, faces "significant challenges as it gets underway, and at the same time is looking to the best way to deal with this challenge". Daily Times, June 11, 2008.

Government scraps peace deal with Taliban: The Pakistan Government scrapped its peace deal with the Taliban as militants have reneged on their promise to stop violence, Prime Minister’s Adviser on Interior Affairs Rehman Malik said. "The Swat agreement is scrapped as the militants have [continued] their attacks on security forces," Malik told a group of reporters in Islamabad on June 9. Separately, the Tehreek-e-Taliban spokesman Maulvi Umar told ARY TV that Taliban would turn cities and settled areas into battlefields if the Government scrapped its truce with them. Daily Times, June 10, 2008.

Peace talks not with terrorists, says Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi: The Pakistan Government is not holding peace talks with terrorists but only with peace-loving elements as part of a multipronged strategy to fight extremism, said Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi in Afghanistan on June 6. "We will not engage with terrorists," Qureshi told reporters, adding, "Those who pick up arms and rifles are neither your friends nor our friends. We are engaging with those elements that are peace-loving and want stability in their regions and want to live a normal peaceful life." Qureshi added that Islamabad believed it needed to adopt a more comprehensive approach to fighting extremism that included political engagement, socio-economic development and "when required", military measures. Pakistan has already signed a peace deal with pro-Taliban militants in the Swat Valley. It is also in talks with al Qaeda-linked leader Baitullah Mehsud, who has vowed to continue jihad in Afghanistan while pursuing peace negotiations. Daily Times, June 7, 2008.

Majority of Swat militants released under peace agreement: The North West Frontier Province (NWFP) Prison Minister Mian Nisar Gul Kakakhel said the Government had released a majority of the detained militants in Swat on June 4. "The NWFP Government has released the majority of the Swat militants after a peace accord between the Government and the militants," the Minister told reporters during a visit to the Central Jail in provincial capital Peshawar. Daily Times, June 5, 2008.

Eight persons killed in suicide blast at Danish embassy in Islamabad: A suspected suicide bomber blew up his car outside the Danish Embassy in Islamabad on June 2, killing at least eight persons and injuring 30 others. The Danish Foreign Minister said a Pakistani cleaner employed at the Embassy and a Danish citizen of Pakistani origin died, and three other local employees were hurt, but the Embassy’s four Danish staffers were unharmed. There was no claim of responsibility for the blast, but officials said it was likely linked to anger over blasphemous caricatures, which were recently reprinted by Danish newspapers.

The explosion, which occurred at around 1.05 pm, damaged the main gate of the Embassy and the front of the building. It also left a six-foot deep crater in the road. Windows were also broken in the nearby home of the Indian High Commissioner.Daily Times, June 3, 2008.

Pakistan exports terrorism to world, says Afghan Speaker: Afghanistan Senate Speaker Sibghatullah Mijaddedi, during his visit to India on June 1, accused Pakistan of being an "exporter of terrorism" to other parts of the world, and blamed it for all problems in his country. Addressing the concluding session of an international conference on terrorism in New Delhi, Mijaddedi said, "Pakistan is exporting terrorism to different parts of the world. Eighty to 90 per cent of terror attacks around the world can be traced back to Pakistan. The ISI is exporting terrorists trained in their terror camps," Mijaddedi said. Criticising the allied forces fighting the "war against terror" in Afghanistan of turning a blind eye to the terror camps operating in Pakistan, he said, "We are suffering because of the interference of ISI in our country; everyday we lose our people, young and old indiscriminately." The Hindu, June 2, 2008.

Balochistan National Party rejects proposed peace talks: The Balochistan National Party (BNP), on May 31, refused to participate in the Government-sponsored talks aimed to establish peace in the Balochistan province, saying that Islamabad should first halt the ongoing military operation. "We will not participate in the talks until the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) Government stops the military operation in the mountains of Balochistan, frees all the political prisoners and withdraws [the Army] from the province," Sardar Akhtar Mengal, president of the BNP, told a News Conference in Karachi. Mengal alleged that thousands of people had been displaced because of the military crackdown in several Districts of Balochistan, particularly Dera Bugti and Kohlu. Talks made no sense until the displaced people were brought back to their homes, he said. The Post, June 2, 2008.

Taliban declare cease-fire in Darra Adamkhel: The Taliban on May 28 announced a complete cessation of hostilities after holding talks for six days with a peace committee of elders from Darra Adamkhel in the NWFP. A spokesman for ‘commander’ Tariq disclosed that the Government had assured them that the military would stop operations in Darra Adamkhel and, in return, the Taliban would stop their activities on the stretch of the Indus Highway passing through Darra Adamkhel. The Government was reportedly trying to hold talks with the militants engaged in armed clashes with security forces since February 25, 2008, to ensure that the Indus Highway passing through Darra Adamkhel and the Kohat tunnel remained safe. The administration had formed a jirga (council) in Kohat on May 22 and sent it to the Taliban to hold talks on behalf of the Government. Dawn, May 29, 2008.

Government swapped Mullah Dadullah and Mullah Obaidullah for Tariq Azizuddin: Two senior Taliban leaders, Mullah Obaidullah Akhund and Mullah Mansoor Dadullah, were released by the Pakistan Government along with hundreds of other Taliban militants to secure the release of Pakistani Ambassador to Afghanistan Tariq Azizuddin and 35 Army officials. Despite the fact that Government officials denied the prisoner swap, both the militant leaders reached Afghanistan around two weeks ago. Adviser to the Prime Minister on Interior Security, Rehman Malik, however, denied any such prisoner swap between the Taliban and the Government of Pakistan, saying that not a single prisoner was released in return for the release of Ambassador Azizuddin. But a prominent jihadi leader from Afghanistan confirmed the development, saying "The release of both the Taliban commanders was part of a 'package swap deal' between the Pakistani authorities and the Taliban under which 35 Army personnel were also released besides the Pakistani Ambassador and his staff."

Obaidullah was arrested on March 1, 2007. He is the most senior Taliban figure captured to date, and "is considered by American intelligence officials to have been one of the Taliban leaders closest to Osama bin Laden," as well as part of the "inner core of the Taliban leadership around Mullah Muhammad Omar." Obaidullah is a member of the Taliban's Shura Majlis, or executive council, and is thought to be third in command. Mullah Mansoor Dadullah, a senior Taliban leader, was wounded and captured along with five lieutenants by the Frontier Corps on February 11, 2008. The officials said that Mansoor was captured while crossing from Afghanistan into Pakistan. The News, May 28, 2008.

Previously, on May 24, the Taliban in South Waziristan had declared that it would not accept any Government condition to stop cross-border movement to finalise a peace deal. Abu Zakwan, the Taliban commander in the Kotkai area of South Waziristan, stated, "First, we will not accept such a ban. But we hope the peace deal will be inked without a clause that puts restrictions on Mujahideen to cross the border (into Afghanistan)." Zakwan further said that Government negotiators were asking for a pledge to stop cross-border attacks, but the Taliban were not committing to such an agreement. He said, Waziristan was serving the region as a "centre for jihad" and people from across the country were being trained for holy war "against the United States". The Daily Times, May 28, 2008.

US to freeze assets of four Lashkar-e-Toiba leaders: The United States Treasury said, on May 27, it had decided to freeze the assets of four leaders of the Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT), including its chief Hafiz Mohammed Saeed. The State Department had designated the LeT a foreign terrorist organisation in 2001. The group’s "transnational nature makes it crucial for governments worldwide to do all they can to stifle LeT’s fund-raising and operations… LeT is a dangerous al Qaeda affiliate that has demonstrated its willingness to murder innocent civilians", said Stuart Levey, the Treasury’s Undersecretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence. Any assets these men have under US jurisdiction will be frozen, and Americans will be prohibited from doing business with them, the Treasury said. The four included Saeed, who, the Treasury said, has played a major role in the organisation’s operational and fund-raising activities. It named the others as Pakistan-born Zaki-ur-Rehman Lakhvi, the chief of operations; Haji Mohammad Ashraf, the chief of finance, and India-born Mahmoud Mohammad Ahmed Bahaziq, described as the main LeT financier in the 1980s and 1990s. Dawn, May 28, 2008.

[South Asian Intelligence Review]